On September 6, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant decline, breaking through the previously established range of $55,724 to $73,777. This breach has set the stage for a potential further drop, with the next significant support level being the August 5 intraday low of $49,000. The movement below this range is a notable shift, indicating increasing bearish sentiment in the market. Alvin Kan, the Chief Operating Officer of Bitget Wallet, has commented on the current situation, suggesting that Bitcoin might continue to face downward pressure until the Federal Reserve makes its rate decision on September 18. According to Kan, the outcome of this decision is crucial, as it will likely influence the broader market for risk assets. Kan expects that a rate cut, if announced, could provide a short- to mid-term boost for these assets, including Bitcoin.
Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of the BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange, has recently revised his stance on Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Previously, Hayes had anticipated that Bitcoin would fall below the $50,000 mark. However, he has adjusted his forecast in light of recent developments. Hayes now projects a potential rally for Bitcoin as early as the coming week. His revised outlook is largely influenced by the expected increase in United States dollar liquidity resulting from the Federal Reserve’s actions. The infusion of liquidity is expected to provide a supportive environment for Bitcoin and other risk assets, potentially reversing the current downtrend.
The shift in Hayes’s perspective reflects broader market sentiments and expectations about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. As the Fed prepares to announce its rate decision, investors and market participants are closely monitoring the implications for asset prices. A rate cut would typically lower borrowing costs and increase liquidity, potentially leading to a rebound in asset prices that have been under pressure. In this context, Bitcoin’s performance is being closely watched as an indicator of broader market trends.
The cryptocurrency market has been experiencing heightened volatility recently, with Bitcoin at the center of this turbulence. The recent price movement underscores the sensitivity of Bitcoin to macroeconomic factors and monetary policy decisions. As the market awaits the Federal Reserve’s announcement, the anticipation of a rate cut has introduced a degree of optimism among some analysts and investors, suggesting that Bitcoin could see a recovery if the Fed’s decision aligns with expectations.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitcoin’s price has experienced a significant drop, closing below the critical support level of $55,724 on September 6. This decline suggests that bearish forces are attempting to dominate the market. Typically, when a crucial support level is breached, the price often retests this level to confirm the breakdown. In this scenario, the BTC/USDT trading pair may attempt to recover to the $55,724 level, where resistance from bears could emerge. If the price struggles to surpass this level and instead declines, it would indicate that bears have successfully turned this former support into resistance. Such a development could escalate selling pressure, potentially driving Bitcoin’s price down toward the next significant support at $49,000.
For a bullish turnaround, the first positive indicator would be a breakout and close above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $57,957. Achieving this could set the stage for a relief rally, possibly extending to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $60,839. However, bears have persistently prevented the price from rising above the moving averages recently, implying that any upward movement is perceived as a selling opportunity. Immediate minor support exists at $53,969, but if this level is breached, the price could potentially decline further towards $49,000.
On the upside, bulls need to push the price above the 50-day SMA to indicate that sellers may be losing control. Successfully doing so could pave the way for a rally to $60,000, and potentially to $62,000. If the price remains below the moving averages or fails to recover, it will suggest that bearish sentiment is prevailing, potentially leading to further declines.
Uniswap Price Analysis
Uniswap (UNI) is currently attempting a relief rally but is likely to encounter resistance near the breakdown level of $6.74. The 20-day EMA, which has flattened at $6.25, along with the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint, indicates a reduction in selling pressure. If buyers manage to push the price above the 50-day SMA at $6.55, the UNI/USDT pair could rise towards $8.66. There is minor resistance at $7.22, but it is expected to be surpassed if the rally gains momentum.
Conversely, if the price declines from $6.74 and falls below the 20-day EMA, it could suggest a range-bound market with fluctuations between $6.36 and $7.22. The pair has gradually approached the resistance zone between $6.74 and $7.22. The 50-day SMA is a critical support level to monitor. If the price holds above this support, it would indicate that bulls are buying the dips, potentially leading to a retest of $7.22.
To prevent further upward movement, bears will need to push and maintain the price below the 50-day SMA. Failure to do so could result in a decline to $5.50.
Sui Price Analysis
A price reversal from this resistance, while still rebounding off the moving averages, would signal a positive outlook and increase the likelihood of a breakout above the channel. Such a breakout could drive the SUI/USDT pair to $1.20.
However, if the price reverses from the resistance line and falls below the moving averages, it would imply that the pair may continue to trade within the channel for a while longer. Both moving averages are trending upward, and the RSI is in the positive zone, suggesting bullish control. Should buyers maintain their momentum and push the price above the channel, the pair might advance to $1.12 and subsequently to $1.20.
On the downside, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, it would indicate that bears are attempting to keep the pair within the channel. Further declines below the 50-day SMA could weaken the pair and signal increasing bearish control.
Optimism Price Analysis
Optimism (OP) broke above the 20-day EMA at $1.40 on September 7 and approached the 50-day SMA at $1.47 on September 8. The RSI’s position near the midpoint suggests that bearish pressure is diminishing. If buyers succeed in pushing the price above the 50-day SMA and the overhead resistance at $1.65, the OP/USDT pair could start a new uptrend toward $2.50.
Conversely, if the price fails to sustain above the 50-day SMA, it may indicate continued selling pressure from bears. This could result in a decline to $1.22 and potentially to the solid support level at $1.17. The pullback to the moving averages indicates that bears are actively resisting near $1.50. A rebound from these moving averages could enhance the prospects for a rally above $1.50, potentially targeting $1.65 and later $1.77.
If the price continues to fall and breaks below the moving averages, it would suggest that bears are selling on every minor rise. This could lead to a decline to the uptrend line, and a break below this line may intensify selling, driving the price to $1.20.
Helium Price Analysis
Helium (HNT) has recently started an upward movement, with the bulls defending the 20-day EMA at $7.33 on September 3. However, a bearish divergence developing on the RSI suggests that bullish momentum might be waning. A close below the 20-day EMA could shift the advantage to bears.
If the price rebounds from the current level or the 20-day EMA and surpasses $8.67, it would suggest that the uptrend is intact. The HNT/USDT pair could then attempt a rally towards $10. On the 4-hour chart, the pair is facing resistance at $8.50. The flattening 20-day EMA and RSI near the midpoint indicate decreasing buying pressure. A close below the 50-day SMA might open the path for a decline to $7.
Alternatively, if the price turns up from the moving averages, bulls might make another attempt to push the pair above $8.67. If successful, the pair could resume its upward trend towards $9.75.
